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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ateba Gautier won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1601
Ateba Gautier editorial illustration
Elo1471
Ozzy Diaz

Ateba GautiervsOzzy DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

Ateba Gautier won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:10

Style matchupAteba Gautier: StrikervsOzzy Diaz: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Ateba Gautier wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Ateba Gautier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ateba Gautier enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Ateba Gautier is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Ozzy Diaz has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Ateba Gautier has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ateba Gautier
Red Corner
VS
Ozzy Diaz
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1601
Elo
1471
24
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
205.74 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ateba GautierW4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jose Daniel Medina · Mar 25
W
KOvs Robert Valentin · Jul 25
W
KOvs Tre'ston Vines · Oct 25
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Jan 26
latest
Ozzy Diaz
oldest →
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Nov 24
W
vs Djorden Santos · Mar 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ateba GautierMetricOzzy Diaz
4.32
Strikes / min
5.33
2.60
Strikes absorbed / min
6.52
54%
Strike defense
61%
0.41
TDs / 15 min
0.00
93%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.72Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap-1.19
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601500154015801620← oldermost recent →
Ateba Gautier(5 fights)Ozzy Diaz(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +129.2|Blue -129.2
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -322.0|Blue +322.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Ateba Gautier

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights5

Ozzy Diaz

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights3