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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1557

Elo1518

Asu AlmabayevvsJose OchoaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAsu Almabayev: WrestlervsJose Ochoa: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Asu Almabayev at -108 American odds

+$93 profit

$193 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Ochoa has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jose Ochoa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Asu Almabayev

Red Corner

Jose Ochoa

Blue Corner

-108

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1557

Elo

1518

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Asu AlmabayevW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Jose OchoaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Nov 24

KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 25

DECvs Clayton Carpenter · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Asu AlmabayevMetricJose Ochoa

2.31

Strikes / min

5.16

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

53%

Strike defense

58%

4.46

TDs / 15 min

0.30

44%

Takedown defense

65%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.32Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Asu AlmabayevJose Ochoa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Asu Almabayev(8 fights)Jose Ochoa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.4|Blue -38.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Asu AlmabayevTargetJose Ochoa

By target zone

46% acc · 55%

Head

42% acc · 31%

45% acc · 23%

Body

72% acc · 50%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

63% acc · 19%

By position

65% acc · 59%

Distance

52% acc · 65%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 35%

38% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Asu Almabayev rounds

even

Jose Ochoa rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control3:16

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control3:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:23

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 42

Sig Strikes

26 / 45

51.7%

Sig Str %

57%

55 / 90

Total Strikes

118 / 151

7 / 16

TDs

1 / 1

43.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:26

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jose Ochoa	10 / 18	36 / 49	1 / 1	0
1	Asu Almabayev	5 / 10	10 / 18	3 / 6	2
2	Jose Ochoa	5 / 9	46 / 56	0 / 0	1
2	Asu Almabayev	11 / 20	32 / 45	2 / 5	0
3	Jose Ochoa	11 / 18	36 / 46	0 / 0	1
3	Asu Almabayev	6 / 12	13 / 27	2 / 5	0

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Jose Ochoa

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4