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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1557

Elo1485

Asu AlmabayevvsJose JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Asu Almabayev at -395 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Asu Almabayev threatens submissions; Jose Johnson has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Jose Johnson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Asu Almabayev

Red Corner

Jose Johnson

Blue Corner

-395

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1557

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

6'0"

165.1 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Asu AlmabayevW3 streak

oldest →

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Jose Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23

SUBvs Chad Anheliger · Nov 23

SUBvs Felipe Bunes · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Asu AlmabayevMetricJose Johnson

2.31

Strikes / min

2.27

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

1.61

53%

Strike defense

53%

4.46

TDs / 15 min

0.69

44%

Takedown defense

41%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.32evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Asu AlmabayevJose Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Asu Almabayev(8 fights)Jose Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.1|Blue -71.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Asu AlmabayevTargetJose Johnson

By target zone

63% acc · 60%

Head

19% acc · 60%

100% acc · 15%

Body

25% acc · 20%

71% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

40% acc · 20%

Distance

22% acc · 80%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

79% acc · 55%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Asu Almabayev rounds

even

Jose Johnson rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns5

Control3:24

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control4:08

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:52

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 29

Sig Strikes

5 / 21

67.7%

Sig Str %

20%

77 / 109

Total Strikes

58 / 79

6 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

34.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

11:24

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jose Johnson	3 / 11	29 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Asu Almabayev	4 / 7	12 / 19	5 / 7	1
2	Jose Johnson	2 / 6	9 / 14	1 / 1	1
2	Asu Almabayev	8 / 12	34 / 47	0 / 1	1
3	Jose Johnson	0 / 4	20 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Asu Almabayev	8 / 10	31 / 43	1 / 3	2

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Jose Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4