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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Aspen Ladd won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1422
Aspen Ladd
Elo1373

Aspen LaddvsTonya EvingerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aspen Ladd won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:26

Model Prediction: Tonya Evinger wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Aspen Ladd wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tonya Evinger at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Aspen Ladd is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Tonya Evinger has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Aspen Ladd has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Tonya Evinger has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aspen Ladd
Red Corner
VS
Tonya Evinger
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1422
Elo
1373
31
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aspen LaddL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sijara Eubanks · May 19
L
KOvs Germaine De Randamie · Jul 19
W
KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Dec 19
L
vs Norma Dumont · Oct 21
L
vs Raquel Pennington · Apr 22
latest
Tonya EvingerL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Cris Cyborg · Jul 17
L
vs Lina Lansberg · Jun 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aspen LaddMetricTonya Evinger
3.78
Strikes / min
1.16
4.65
Strikes absorbed / min
4.02
47%
Strike defense
38%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.93
62%
Takedown defense
33%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap-2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1485Strikes26.0 vs 32.0Takedowns1.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Aspen LaddTonya Evinger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Aspen Ladd(7 fights)Tonya Evinger(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +49.1|Blue -49.1
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aspen LaddTargetTonya Evinger

By target zone

43
65% acc · 86%
Head
2
29% acc · 22%
7
100% acc · 14%
Body
6
86% acc · 67%
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 11%

By position

3
25% acc · 6%
Distance
3
33% acc · 33%
7
78% acc · 14%
Clinch
6
86% acc · 67%
40
77% acc · 80%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Aspen Ladd rounds
0
even
0
Tonya Evinger rounds
Round 1Aspen Ladd edged it
Sig. strikes50
Takedowns0
Control1:53
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
50 / 73
Sig Strikes
9 / 16
68%
Sig Str %
56%
59 / 84
Total Strikes
15 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:53
Ctrl Time
1:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tonya Evinger9 / 1615 / 220 / 10
1Aspen Ladd50 / 7359 / 840 / 00

Aspen Ladd

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7

Tonya Evinger

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3