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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · U-DEC R3

Elo1422

Elo1504

Aspen LaddvsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAspen Ladd: Well-roundedvsRaquel Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raquel Pennington has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Aspen Ladd

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1422

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aspen Ladd

oldest →

KOvs Tonya Evinger · Oct 18

vs Sijara Eubanks · May 19

KOvs Germaine De Randamie · Jul 19

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Dec 19

vs Norma Dumont · Oct 21

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Sep 21

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aspen LaddMetricRaquel Pennington

3.78

Strikes / min

4.10

4.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

47%

Strike defense

61%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.83

62%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aspen LaddRaquel Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aspen Ladd(7 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -82.1|Blue +82.1

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aspen LaddTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

31% acc · 57%

Head

43% acc · 50%

62% acc · 32%

Body

90% acc · 41%

88% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

36% acc · 80%

Distance

54% acc · 78%

87% acc · 20%

Clinch

86% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aspen Ladd rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Aspen Ladd edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:56

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 160

Sig Strikes

114 / 195

43.3%

Sig Str %

59%

102 / 199

Total Strikes

136 / 218

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

1:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raquel Pennington	40 / 74	40 / 74	0 / 0
1	Aspen Ladd	20 / 60	25 / 65	0 / 1
2	Raquel Pennington	49 / 82	52 / 85	0 / 1
2	Aspen Ladd	26 / 68	28 / 70	0 / 0
3	Raquel Pennington	25 / 39	44 / 59	0 / 0
3	Aspen Ladd	19 / 32	49 / 64	2 / 3

Aspen Ladd

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19