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Women's Featherweight
5 Rounds
Norma Dumont won · U-DEC R5
Elo1422
Aspen Ladd
Elo1516
Norma Dumont

Aspen LaddvsNorma DumontUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Saturday, October 16, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Norma Dumont won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAspen Ladd: Well-roundedvsNorma Dumont: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Aspen Ladd wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Norma Dumont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aspen Ladd at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Norma Dumont has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Aspen Ladd
Red Corner
VS
Norma Dumont
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1422
Elo
1516
31
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aspen Ladd
oldest →
W
KOvs Tonya Evinger · Oct 18
W
vs Sijara Eubanks · May 19
L
KOvs Germaine De Randamie · Jul 19
W
KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Dec 19
L
vs Raquel Pennington · Apr 22
latest
Norma Dumont
oldest →
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · Jul 23
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · Apr 24
W
vs Irene Aldana · Sep 24
W
vs Ketlen Vieira · Nov 25
L
DECvs Joselyne Edwards · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aspen LaddMetricNorma Dumont
3.78
Strikes / min
3.85
4.65
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
47%
Strike defense
64%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
1.43
62%
Takedown defense
71%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1544 vs 1516Strikes3.8 vs 3.1Takedowns1.6 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.7
Aspen LaddNorma Dumont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Aspen Ladd(7 fights)Norma Dumont(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -93.9|Blue +93.9
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +532.0|Blue -532.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aspen LaddTargetNorma Dumont

By target zone

28
27% acc · 85%
Head
48
37% acc · 74%
2
67% acc · 6%
Body
15
83% acc · 23%
3
75% acc · 9%
Leg
2
100% acc · 3%

By position

17
20% acc · 52%
Distance
51
38% acc · 78%
8
67% acc · 24%
Clinch
14
93% acc · 22%
8
62% acc · 24%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Aspen Ladd rounds
2
even
3
Norma Dumont rounds
Round 1Norma Dumont edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Norma Dumont edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:37
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Norma Dumont edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:51
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control1:49
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:23Control
Round 5Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control4:15
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 110
Sig Strikes
65 / 149
31.6%
Sig Str %
52.6%
86 / 166
Total Strikes
113 / 201
0 / 5
TDs
1 / 1
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
7:32
Ctrl Time
1:47

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Norma Dumont10 / 4410 / 440 / 00
1Aspen Ladd3 / 173 / 170 / 00
2Norma Dumont13 / 3117 / 350 / 00
2Aspen Ladd4 / 214 / 210 / 10
3Norma Dumont21 / 4721 / 470 / 00
3Aspen Ladd9 / 349 / 340 / 30
4Aspen Ladd12 / 2931 / 510 / 00
4Norma Dumont9 / 1427 / 351 / 10
5Norma Dumont12 / 1338 / 400 / 00
5Aspen Ladd5 / 939 / 430 / 10

Aspen Ladd

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights7

Norma Dumont

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12