Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kai Kara-France won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Askar AskarovvsKai Kara-FranceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Kai Kara-France won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAskar Askarov: WrestlervsKai Kara-France: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Askar Askarov wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Kai Kara-France wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Askar Askarov at -450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Askar Askarov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kai Kara-France has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Askar Askarov

Red Corner

Kai Kara-France

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1495

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Askar AskarovW3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Jan 20

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 20

vs Joseph Benavidez · Mar 21

latest

Kai Kara-France

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 21

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22

vs Amir Albazi · Jun 23

KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Askar AskarovMetricKai Kara-France

3.05

Strikes / min

4.46

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

57%

Strike defense

64%

2.60

TDs / 15 min

0.56

66%

Takedown defense

83%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Askar AskarovKai Kara-France

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Askar Askarov(4 fights)Kai Kara-France(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Askar AskarovTargetKai Kara-France

By target zone

45% acc · 93%

Head

27% acc · 51%

25% acc · 4%

Body

56% acc · 20%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

94% acc · 29%

By position

42% acc · 89%

Distance

37% acc · 90%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Askar Askarov rounds

even

Kai Kara-France rounds

Round 1Askar Askarov edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:09

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:58

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kai Kara-France edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:07

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 60

Sig Strikes

51 / 130

53%

Sig Str %

39%

37 / 76

Total Strikes

64 / 145

2 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

13%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kai Kara-France	4 / 10	14 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Askar Askarov	3 / 4	13 / 20	1 / 4	2
2	Kai Kara-France	24 / 65	26 / 68	0 / 0	0
2	Askar Askarov	12 / 28	12 / 28	1 / 7	0
3	Kai Kara-France	23 / 55	24 / 56	0 / 1	0
3	Askar Askarov	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 3	0

Askar Askarov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Kai Kara-France

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11