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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Livinha Souza won · U-DEC

Elo1480

Elo1410

Ashley YodervsLivinha SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Saturday, August 15, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Livinha Souza won

U-DEC

Style matchupAshley Yoder: Well-roundedvsLivinha Souza: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Livinha Souza wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Livinha Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Livinha Souza at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ashley Yoder enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Livinha Souza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ashley Yoder has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ashley Yoder (53.5%).
Ashley Yoder has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ashley Yoder

Red Corner

Livinha Souza

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1480

Elo

1410

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'3"

175.26 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ashley YoderL3 streak

oldest →

vs Randa Markos · Oct 19

vs Miranda Granger · Nov 20

vs Angela Hill · Mar 21

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jul 21

vs Emily Ducote · Oct 23

latest

Livinha SouzaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Chambers · Sep 18

vs Sarah Frota · Feb 19

vs Brianna Van Buren · Jul 19

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Mar 21

vs Randa Markos · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ashley YoderMetricLivinha Souza

3.42

Strikes / min

1.75

4.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

47%

Strike defense

56%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

2.54

66%

Takedown defense

40%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ashley YoderLivinha Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ashley Yoder(10 fights)Livinha Souza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.4|Blue -69.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ashley YoderTargetLivinha Souza

By target zone

25% acc · 72%

Head

45% acc · 33%

43% acc · 19%

Body

73% acc · 17%

38% acc · 9%

Leg

88% acc · 50%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

65% acc · 78%

0% acc

Clinch

71% acc · 11%

Ground

63% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ashley Yoder rounds

even

Livinha Souza rounds

Round 1Livinha Souza edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:12

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Livinha Souza edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:26

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Livinha Souza edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:12

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 114

Sig Strikes

46 / 70

28%

Sig Str %

64.3%

89 / 176

Total Strikes

70 / 95

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:50

Ctrl Time

2:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Livinha Souza	10 / 19	20 / 30	0 / 1
1	Ashley Yoder	6 / 22	34 / 51	0 / 0
2	Livinha Souza	13 / 18	21 / 26	0 / 0
2	Ashley Yoder	6 / 20	28 / 46	0 / 1
3	Livinha Souza	23 / 33	29 / 39	1 / 3
3	Ashley Yoder	20 / 72	27 / 79	0 / 0

Ashley Yoder

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Livinha Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights6