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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Emily Ducote won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1495

Ashley YodervsEmily DucoteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Saturday, October 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Emily Ducote won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAshley Yoder: Well-roundedvsEmily Ducote: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Emily Ducote wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Emily Ducote wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Emily Ducote enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Emily Ducote has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Emily Ducote has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ashley Yoder (53.5%).
Ashley Yoder has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ashley Yoder

Red Corner

Emily Ducote

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1480

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'2"

175.26 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ashley YoderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Randa Markos · Oct 19

vs Livinha Souza · Aug 20

vs Miranda Granger · Nov 20

vs Angela Hill · Mar 21

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jul 21

latest

Emily DucoteL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Penne · Jul 22

vs Angela Hill · Dec 22

vs Loopy Godinez · May 23

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ashley YoderMetricEmily Ducote

3.42

Strikes / min

7.45

4.13

Strikes absorbed / min

7.84

47%

Strike defense

57%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.20

66%

Takedown defense

94%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ashley YoderEmily Ducote

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ashley Yoder(10 fights)Emily Ducote(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.8|Blue +15.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +658.0|Blue -658.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ashley YoderTargetEmily Ducote

By target zone

27% acc · 58%

Head

48% acc · 59%

80% acc · 31%

Body

73% acc · 25%

85% acc · 11%

Leg

76% acc · 16%

By position

36% acc · 91%

Distance

117

56% acc · 100%

90% acc · 9%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ashley Yoder rounds

even

Emily Ducote rounds

Round 1Ashley Yoder edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:09

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Emily Ducote edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 269

Sig Strikes

117 / 210

39%

Sig Str %

54%

105 / 276

Total Strikes

119 / 213

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Emily Ducote	26 / 66	26 / 67	1 / 1
1	Ashley Yoder	32 / 68	35 / 71	0 / 0
2	Emily Ducote	34 / 61	35 / 62	0 / 0
2	Ashley Yoder	35 / 89	35 / 91	0 / 2
3	Emily Ducote	57 / 83	58 / 84	0 / 0
3	Ashley Yoder	35 / 112	35 / 114	0 / 1

Ashley Yoder

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Emily Ducote

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5