← All fights/Event page

Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ketlen Vieira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1468

Elo1515

Ashlee Evans-SmithvsKetlen VieiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Ketlen Vieira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAshlee Evans-Smith: Pressure fightervsKetlen Vieira: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ashlee Evans-Smith wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Ketlen Vieira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ashlee Evans-Smith at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ketlen Vieira has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Red Corner

Ketlen Vieira

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1468

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ashlee Evans-SmithL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17

vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18

vs Andrea Lee · Feb 19

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20

vs Ailin Perez · Jul 23

latest

Ketlen Vieira

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 23

vs Kayla Harrison · Oct 24

vs Macy Chiasson · May 25

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 25

DECvs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ashlee Evans-SmithMetricKetlen Vieira

4.03

Strikes / min

2.76

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.75

53%

Strike defense

50%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

1.33

50%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ashlee Evans-SmithKetlen Vieira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)Ketlen Vieira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.4|Blue +46.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ashlee Evans-SmithTargetKetlen Vieira

By target zone

15% acc · 29%

Head

26% acc · 79%

77% acc · 25%

Body

85% acc · 15%

89% acc · 46%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

31% acc · 76%

Distance

26% acc · 80%

76% acc · 24%

Clinch

76% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds

even

Ketlen Vieira rounds

Round 1Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:01

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 2Ketlen Vieira edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:04

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 3Ketlen Vieira edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 189

Sig Strikes

71 / 235

35.7%

Sig Str %

30%

100 / 228

Total Strikes

89 / 256

0 / 5

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

4:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ketlen Vieira	24 / 77	26 / 80	0 / 3
1	Ashlee Evans-Smith	35 / 61	50 / 76	0 / 2
2	Ketlen Vieira	22 / 78	23 / 80	1 / 1
2	Ashlee Evans-Smith	15 / 58	29 / 76	0 / 2
3	Ketlen Vieira	25 / 80	40 / 96	0 / 1
3	Ashlee Evans-Smith	18 / 70	21 / 76	0 / 1

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Ketlen Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14