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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Andrea Lee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1468

Elo1477

Ashlee Evans-SmithvsAndrea LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Andrea Lee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAshlee Evans-Smith: Pressure fightervsAndrea Lee: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Andrea Lee wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Andrea Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrea Lee at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Red Corner

Andrea Lee

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1468

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ashlee Evans-SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ketlen Vieira · Apr 17

SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17

vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20

vs Ailin Perez · Jul 23

latest

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ashlee Evans-SmithMetricAndrea Lee

4.03

Strikes / min

4.62

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

53%

Strike defense

61%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

1.65

50%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ashlee Evans-SmithAndrea Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)Andrea Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.8|Blue +8.8

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ashlee Evans-SmithTargetAndrea Lee

By target zone

21% acc · 58%

Head

36% acc · 42%

56% acc · 30%

Body

74% acc · 31%

73% acc · 12%

Leg

97% acc · 27%

By position

26% acc · 85%

Distance

52% acc · 88%

89% acc · 12%

Clinch

65% acc · 10%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds

even

Andrea Lee rounds

Round 1Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:14

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:03

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:18

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 225

Sig Strikes

111 / 209

28.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

71 / 230

Total Strikes

118 / 216

2 / 10

TDs

0 / 2

15%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrea Lee	44 / 86	46 / 88	0 / 1
1	Ashlee Evans-Smith	34 / 103	34 / 103	0 / 1
2	Andrea Lee	35 / 56	39 / 60	0 / 0
2	Ashlee Evans-Smith	15 / 47	20 / 52	1 / 4
3	Andrea Lee	32 / 67	33 / 68	0 / 1
3	Ashlee Evans-Smith	17 / 75	17 / 75	1 / 5

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14