Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ailin Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1468

Elo1546

Ashlee Evans-SmithvsAilin PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ailin Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAshlee Evans-Smith: Pressure fightervsAilin Perez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ailin Perez wins(74.8%)

Actual result: Ailin Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ailin Perez at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ailin Perez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ailin Perez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ailin Perez (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Red Corner

Ailin Perez

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1468

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ashlee Evans-SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ketlen Vieira · Apr 17

SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17

vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18

vs Andrea Lee · Feb 19

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20

latest

Ailin PerezW5 streak

oldest →

vs Lucie Pudilova · Nov 23

vs Joselyne Edwards · Jun 24

SUBvs Daria Zhelezniakova · Sep 24

vs Karol Rosa · Jan 25

vs Macy Chiasson · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ashlee Evans-SmithMetricAilin Perez

4.03

Strikes / min

2.88

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

1.58

53%

Strike defense

56%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

4.90

50%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ashlee Evans-SmithAilin Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)Ailin Perez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.3|Blue +78.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +644.0|Blue -644.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ashlee Evans-SmithTargetAilin Perez

By target zone

15% acc · 50%

Head

57% acc · 83%

67% acc · 17%

Body

64% acc · 12%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

18% acc · 58%

Distance

38% acc · 20%

71% acc · 42%

Clinch

61% acc · 23%

Ground

69% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds

even

Ailin Perez rounds

Round 1Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:30Control

Round 2Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

11Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:38Control

Round 3Ailin Perez edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 47

Sig Strikes

60 / 104

27.3%

Sig Str %

58%

13 / 49

Total Strikes

127 / 190

0 / 1

TDs

10 / 15

TD %

69%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

11:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ailin Perez	36 / 63	50 / 87	3 / 4
1	Ashlee Evans-Smith	4 / 17	4 / 18	0 / 0
2	Ailin Perez	11 / 18	33 / 44	3 / 4
2	Ashlee Evans-Smith	5 / 22	6 / 23	0 / 1
3	Ailin Perez	13 / 23	44 / 59	4 / 7
3	Ashlee Evans-Smith	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Ailin Perez

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7