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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1356

Arnold AllenvsYaotzin MezaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · Saturday, February 27, 2016London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsYaotzin Meza: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Arnold Allen wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arnold Allen at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arnold Allen has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Yaotzin Meza

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1511

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Yaotzin Meza

oldest →

KOvs Chad Mendes · Dec 12

SUBvs John Albert · Jul 13

vs Sergio Pettis · Jun 14

vs Damian Stasiak · Apr 15

vs Sam Sicilia · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricYaotzin Meza

3.47

Strikes / min

1.43

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

1.62

60%

Strike defense

64%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.06

71%

Takedown defense

18%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenYaotzin Meza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Yaotzin Meza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +154.7|Blue -154.7

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +25.0|Blue -25.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetYaotzin Meza

By target zone

24% acc · 65%

Head

23% acc · 40%

63% acc · 16%

Body

75% acc · 24%

75% acc · 19%

Leg

90% acc · 36%

By position

20% acc · 52%

Distance

38% acc · 84%

67% acc · 19%

Clinch

80% acc · 16%

82% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Yaotzin Meza rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:40

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control0:53

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:39

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 101

Sig Strikes

25 / 61

32.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

40 / 113

Total Strikes

51 / 93

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 8

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

2:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yaotzin Meza	10 / 18	23 / 35	0 / 2
1	Arnold Allen	9 / 30	13 / 34	1 / 1
2	Yaotzin Meza	13 / 34	18 / 39	0 / 1
2	Arnold Allen	11 / 47	11 / 49	2 / 2
3	Yaotzin Meza	2 / 9	10 / 19	0 / 5
3	Arnold Allen	11 / 24	16 / 30	1 / 1

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Yaotzin Meza

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6