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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Arnold Allen won · Decision R5
Elo1511
Elo1564

Arnold AllenvsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

Decision · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen
Red Corner
VS
Melquizael Costa
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1511
Elo
1564
32
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen
oldest →
W
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Oct 22
L
vs Max Holloway · Apr 23
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24
W
vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24
L
vs Jean Silva · Jan 26
latest
Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25
W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25
W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25
W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricMelquizael Costa
3.47
Strikes / min
4.38
3.04
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
2.00
71%
Takedown defense
58%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43evenly matched on net striking+1.41
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801508153515631590← oldermost recent →
Arnold Allen(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -52.5|Blue +52.5
Recent Form
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9