Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · S-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1453

Arnold AllenvsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · Saturday, March 18, 2017London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsMakwan Amirkhani: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makwan Amirkhani at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arnold Allen has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Arnold Allen has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1511

Elo

1453

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricMakwan Amirkhani

3.47

Strikes / min

1.33

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

60%

Strike defense

46%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

3.96

71%

Takedown defense

35%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.6|Blue -57.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

42% acc · 84%

Head

37% acc · 88%

63% acc · 16%

Body

40% acc · 12%

0% acc

Leg

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

32% acc · 76%

29% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

74% acc · 44%

Ground

100% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:58

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:13

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control1:24

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 74

Sig Strikes

17 / 46

45%

Sig Str %

39.3%

75 / 118

Total Strikes

32 / 65

3 / 6

TDs

4 / 12

50%

TD %

43.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:35

Ctrl Time

5:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	6 / 13	8 / 16	2 / 3	2
1	Arnold Allen	8 / 29	23 / 44	1 / 2	0
2	Makwan Amirkhani	3 / 7	10 / 17	1 / 2	1
2	Arnold Allen	10 / 17	36 / 43	0 / 0	1
3	Makwan Amirkhani	8 / 26	14 / 32	1 / 7	0
3	Arnold Allen	14 / 28	16 / 31	2 / 4	0

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14