Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1491

Arnold AllenvsJordan RinaldiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsJordan Rinaldi: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Arnold Allen wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arnold Allen at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arnold Allen has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Jordan Rinaldi

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1511

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Jordan Rinaldi

oldest →

vs Abel Trujillo · May 16

SUBvs Alvaro Herrera · Aug 17

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 18

vs Jason Knight · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricJordan Rinaldi

3.47

Strikes / min

1.56

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

60%

Strike defense

59%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.45

71%

Takedown defense

20%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenJordan Rinaldi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Jordan Rinaldi(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.6|Blue -19.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +160.0|Blue -160.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetJordan Rinaldi

By target zone

28% acc · 68%

Head

8% acc · 17%

77% acc · 27%

Body

46% acc · 20%

25% acc · 5%

Leg

63% acc · 63%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

25% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Jordan Rinaldi rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:57

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 111

Sig Strikes

30 / 104

32%

Sig Str %

28%

41 / 117

Total Strikes

30 / 105

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jordan Rinaldi	8 / 31	8 / 32	0 / 0
1	Arnold Allen	7 / 32	11 / 38	0 / 0
2	Jordan Rinaldi	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 2
2	Arnold Allen	17 / 45	17 / 45	0 / 0
3	Jordan Rinaldi	10 / 36	10 / 36	0 / 1
3	Arnold Allen	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 0

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Jordan Rinaldi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5