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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jean Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1557

Arnold AllenvsJean SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jean Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsJean Silva: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jean Silva wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Jean Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Silva at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Jean Silva

Blue Corner

+184

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1511

Elo

1557

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold AllenW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Oct 22

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Jean Silva

oldest →

KOvs Charles Jourdain · Jun 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 24

KOvs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Feb 25

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Apr 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricJean Silva

3.47

Strikes / min

4.82

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

60%

Strike defense

53%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.20

71%

Takedown defense

78%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenJean Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Jean Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.9|Blue +45.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +413.0|Blue -413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetJean Silva

By target zone

43% acc · 66%

Head

42% acc · 58%

50% acc · 20%

Body

96% acc · 30%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

90% acc · 12%

By position

47% acc · 95%

Distance

54% acc · 92%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Jean Silva rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jean Silva edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:12

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Jean Silva edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:42

26Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 116

Sig Strikes

74 / 136

48.7%

Sig Str %

53.7%

60 / 121

Total Strikes

78 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

80%

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jean Silva	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 0
1	Arnold Allen	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 0
2	Jean Silva	32 / 60	35 / 64	1 / 1
2	Arnold Allen	18 / 43	18 / 44	0 / 0
3	Jean Silva	26 / 45	27 / 46	3 / 5
3	Arnold Allen	16 / 28	20 / 32	0 / 0

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Jean Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7