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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1477

Arnold AllenvsGiga ChikadzeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsGiga Chikadze: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Giga Chikadze wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Giga Chikadze at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).
Giga Chikadze has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Giga Chikadze

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1511

Elo

1477

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Oct 22

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Giga ChikadzeL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edson Barboza · Aug 21

vs Calvin Kattar · Jan 22

vs Alex Caceres · Aug 23

vs David Onama · Apr 25

KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricGiga Chikadze

3.47

Strikes / min

3.75

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

60%

Strike defense

59%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.18

71%

Takedown defense

65%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenGiga Chikadze

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Giga Chikadze(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.4|Blue -34.4

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetGiga Chikadze

By target zone

45% acc · 70%

Head

27% acc · 58%

73% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 32%

40% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Giga Chikadze rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 122

Sig Strikes

38 / 111

50.7%

Sig Str %

34%

61 / 122

Total Strikes

39 / 112

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Giga Chikadze	14 / 33	15 / 34	0 / 0
1	Arnold Allen	13 / 22	13 / 22	0 / 1
2	Giga Chikadze	13 / 40	13 / 40	0 / 0
2	Arnold Allen	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0
3	Giga Chikadze	11 / 38	11 / 38	0 / 0
3	Arnold Allen	32 / 57	32 / 57	0 / 0

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Giga Chikadze

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12