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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1511

Elo1484

Arnold AllenvsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:33

Style matchupArnold Allen: Well-roundedvsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hooker at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arnold Allen has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).
Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Arnold Allen

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1511

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arnold AllenMetricDan Hooker

3.47

Strikes / min

4.82

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

60%

Strike defense

49%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.68

71%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arnold AllenDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arnold Allen(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arnold AllenTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

55% acc · 88%

Head

25% acc · 79%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

61% acc · 94%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arnold Allen rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 84

Sig Strikes

14 / 49

58%

Sig Str %

28%

50 / 85

Total Strikes

14 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Hooker	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Arnold Allen	49 / 84	50 / 85	0 / 0	0

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24