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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Armen Petrosyan won · U-DEC R3
Elo1484
Armen Petrosyan
Elo1577
Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Armen PetrosyanvsChristian Leroy DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Armen Petrosyan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArmen Petrosyan: StrikervsChristian Leroy Duncan: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Armen Petrosyan wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Armen Petrosyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Armen Petrosyan at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Armen Petrosyan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Armen Petrosyan
Red Corner
VS
Christian Leroy Duncan
Blue Corner
+132
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-156
(61%)
1484
Elo
1577
35
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Armen PetrosyanL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Caio Borralho · Jul 22
W
vs AJ Dobson · Oct 22
L
SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 24
L
KOvs Shara Magomedov · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 25
latest
Christian Leroy DuncanW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25
W
KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25
W
KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25
W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26
W
DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Armen PetrosyanMetricChristian Leroy Duncan
5.84
Strikes / min
4.43
3.31
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
53%
Strike defense
52%
0.17
TDs / 15 min
0.33
41%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.53evenly matched on net striking+1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1518Strikes5.7 vs 4.7Takedowns0.2 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Armen PetrosyanChristian Leroy Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701500153015601590← oldermost recent →
Armen Petrosyan(7 fights)Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -93.4|Blue +93.4
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Armen PetrosyanTargetChristian Leroy Duncan

By target zone

37
41% acc · 42%
Head
23
32% acc · 39%
15
68% acc · 17%
Body
8
50% acc · 14%
37
84% acc · 42%
Leg
28
82% acc · 47%

By position

77
55% acc · 87%
Distance
58
48% acc · 98%
10
71% acc · 11%
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 2%
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Armen Petrosyan rounds
0
even
0
Christian Leroy Duncan rounds
Round 1Armen Petrosyan edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Armen Petrosyan edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control1:04
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:41Control
Round 3Armen Petrosyan edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control2:17
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
89 / 156
Sig Strikes
59 / 122
57%
Sig Str %
46.7%
111 / 179
Total Strikes
73 / 136
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 3
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:21
Ctrl Time
1:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Christian Leroy Duncan27 / 5127 / 510 / 00
1Armen Petrosyan37 / 6637 / 660 / 10
2Christian Leroy Duncan20 / 4325 / 480 / 30
2Armen Petrosyan36 / 6246 / 730 / 00
3Christian Leroy Duncan12 / 2821 / 370 / 00
3Armen Petrosyan16 / 2828 / 401 / 10

Armen Petrosyan

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights10