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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Armen Petrosyan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1495

Armen PetrosyanvsAJ DobsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Armen Petrosyan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArmen Petrosyan: StrikervsAJ Dobson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Armen Petrosyan wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Armen Petrosyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Armen Petrosyan at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Armen Petrosyan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
AJ Dobson has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
AJ Dobson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Armen Petrosyan

Red Corner

AJ Dobson

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1484

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Armen PetrosyanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Jul 22

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jun 23

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 24

KOvs Shara Magomedov · Oct 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 25

latest

AJ Dobson

oldest →

vs Jacob Malkoun · Feb 22

vs Tafon Nchukwi · Aug 23

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Armen PetrosyanMetricAJ Dobson

5.84

Strikes / min

4.29

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.31

53%

Strike defense

46%

0.17

TDs / 15 min

1.67

41%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.53Δ 3.55 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Armen PetrosyanAJ Dobson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Armen Petrosyan(7 fights)AJ Dobson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.7|Blue +10.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Armen PetrosyanTargetAJ Dobson

By target zone

21% acc · 26%

Head

28% acc · 66%

90% acc · 30%

Body

64% acc · 16%

93% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

106

45% acc · 90%

Distance

34% acc · 86%

92% acc · 10%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Armen Petrosyan rounds

even

AJ Dobson rounds

Round 1Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

118 / 246

Sig Strikes

58 / 161

49%

Sig Str %

35.3%

118 / 246

Total Strikes

64 / 168

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 3

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	AJ Dobson	15 / 42	17 / 44	2 / 2
1	Armen Petrosyan	35 / 60	35 / 60	0 / 0
2	AJ Dobson	20 / 56	21 / 57	1 / 1
2	Armen Petrosyan	40 / 86	40 / 86	0 / 0
3	AJ Dobson	23 / 63	26 / 67	0 / 0
3	Armen Petrosyan	43 / 100	43 / 100	0 / 1

Armen Petrosyan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

AJ Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4