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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Arman Tsarukyan won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1531
Arman Tsarukyan
Elo1514
Joel Alvarez

Arman TsarukyanvsJoel AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Saturday, February 26, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Arman Tsarukyan won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:57

Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arman Tsarukyan at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Arman Tsarukyan has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Joel Alvarez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Arman Tsarukyan
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1531
Elo
1514
29
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arman TsarukyanW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22
W
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23
W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23
W
vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25
latest
Joel Alvarez
oldest →
W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23
W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24
W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24
W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arman TsarukyanMetricJoel Alvarez
3.85
Strikes / min
4.53
1.80
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
54%
Strike defense
53%
3.26
TDs / 15 min
0.18
75%
Takedown defense
46%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.05evenly matched on net striking+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1546 vs 1556Strikes3.8 vs 4.4Takedowns3.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.20Form0.9 vs 0.9
Arman TsarukyanJoel Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901505152015351550← oldermost recent →
Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +17.2|Blue -17.2
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arman TsarukyanTargetJoel Alvarez

By target zone

31
65% acc · 86%
Head
5
63% acc · 71%
3
100% acc · 8%
Body
2
100% acc · 29%
2
100% acc · 6%
Leg
0

By position

4
44% acc · 11%
Distance
4
67% acc · 57%
0
Clinch
0
32
73% acc · 89%
Ground
3
75% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Arman Tsarukyan rounds
0
even
0
Joel Alvarez rounds
Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control4:22
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Arman Tsarukyan edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:46
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 53
Sig Strikes
7 / 10
67.5%
Sig Str %
81%
93 / 122
Total Strikes
27 / 33
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joel Alvarez5 / 825 / 310 / 00
1Arman Tsarukyan13 / 1950 / 591 / 10
2Joel Alvarez2 / 22 / 20 / 00
2Arman Tsarukyan23 / 3443 / 631 / 10

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11