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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Arman Tsarukyan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1531

Elo1469

Arman TsarukyanvsDamir IsmagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Arman Tsarukyan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupArman Tsarukyan: WrestlervsDamir Ismagulov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arman Tsarukyan at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Arman Tsarukyan

Red Corner

Damir Ismagulov

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1531

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arman TsarukyanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Jun 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23

vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24

SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25

latest

Damir Ismagulov

oldest →

vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19

vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19

vs Rafael Alves · May 21

vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22

vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arman TsarukyanMetricDamir Ismagulov

3.85

Strikes / min

3.36

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

54%

Strike defense

61%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

1.00

75%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.05Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arman TsarukyanDamir Ismagulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.8|Blue -61.8

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arman TsarukyanTargetDamir Ismagulov

By target zone

25% acc · 41%

Head

30% acc · 50%

80% acc · 35%

Body

71% acc · 42%

89% acc · 24%

Leg

60% acc · 8%

By position

41% acc · 91%

Distance

35% acc · 72%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

91% acc · 28%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arman Tsarukyan rounds

even

Damir Ismagulov rounds

Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control3:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control3:24

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Arman Tsarukyan edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control2:57

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 81

Sig Strikes

36 / 86

41.3%

Sig Str %

42%

50 / 105

Total Strikes

51 / 106

7 / 21

TDs

0 / 0

38.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:25

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Damir Ismagulov	13 / 26	24 / 38	0 / 0
1	Arman Tsarukyan	9 / 23	15 / 29	1 / 10
2	Damir Ismagulov	11 / 28	13 / 33	0 / 0
2	Arman Tsarukyan	12 / 27	18 / 35	4 / 6
3	Damir Ismagulov	12 / 32	14 / 35	0 / 0
3	Arman Tsarukyan	13 / 31	17 / 41	2 / 5

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Damir Ismagulov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7