Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Adam Wieczorek won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1491

Arjan BhullarvsAdam WieczorekUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Adam Wieczorek won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:59

Model Prediction: Adam Wieczorek wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Adam Wieczorek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adam Wieczorek at +265 American odds

+$265 profit

$365 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Arjan Bhullar enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Arjan Bhullar has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Arjan Bhullar has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Adam Wieczorek has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Arjan Bhullar

Red Corner

Adam Wieczorek

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'5"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Arjan BhullarW3 streak

oldest →

vs Luis Henrique · Sep 17

vs Marcelo Golm · Oct 18

vs Juan Adams · May 19

latest

Adam Wieczorek

oldest →

vs Anthony Hamilton · Nov 17

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Arjan BhullarMetricAdam Wieczorek

2.33

Strikes / min

1.68

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

1.87

59%

Strike defense

48%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.41

100%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Arjan BhullarAdam Wieczorek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Arjan Bhullar(4 fights)Adam Wieczorek(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Arjan BhullarTargetAdam Wieczorek

By target zone

50% acc · 100%

Head

14% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 54%

By position

45% acc · 56%

Distance

45% acc · 77%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

50% acc · 33%

Ground

50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Arjan Bhullar rounds

even

Adam Wieczorek rounds

Round 1Arjan Bhullar edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:57

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 18

Sig Strikes

13 / 27

48%

Sig Str %

50%

42 / 60

Total Strikes

14 / 28

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:18

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Adam Wieczorek	6 / 16	7 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Arjan Bhullar	6 / 11	34 / 47	1 / 1	0
2	Adam Wieczorek	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0	1
2	Arjan Bhullar	3 / 7	8 / 13	1 / 2	0

Arjan Bhullar

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Adam Wieczorek

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights3