Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Shana Dobson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1493

Ariel BeckvsShana DobsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shana Dobson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:53

Model Prediction: Ariel Beck wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Shana Dobson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ariel Beck at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ariel Beck has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ariel Beck (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ariel Beck

Red Corner

Shana Dobson

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1491

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariel BeckNo prior UFC fights on record.

Shana Dobson

oldest →

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 18

vs Sabina Mazo · Aug 19

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20

KOvs Mariya Agapova · Aug 20

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariel BeckMetricShana Dobson

4.44

Strikes / min

3.34

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

64%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.84

Takedown defense

14%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap-1.86

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ariel Beck(1 fights)Shana Dobson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariel BeckTargetShana Dobson

By target zone

15% acc · 23%

Head

27% acc · 56%

43% acc · 46%

Body

56% acc · 26%

85% acc · 31%

Leg

67% acc · 18%

By position

34% acc · 97%

Distance

34% acc · 91%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ariel Beck rounds

even

Shana Dobson rounds

Round 1Ariel Beck edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:09

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shana Dobson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 102

Sig Strikes

34 / 95

32%

Sig Str %

36%

35 / 102

Total Strikes

36 / 97

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shana Dobson	18 / 55	19 / 56	0 / 0
1	Ariel Beck	26 / 59	26 / 59	0 / 0
2	Shana Dobson	16 / 40	17 / 41	0 / 0
2	Ariel Beck	9 / 43	9 / 43	0 / 0

Ariel Beck

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights1

Shana Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6