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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ariane Lipski won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Elo1500

Ariane LipskivsLuana CarolinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, July 18, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ariane Lipski won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:28

Model Prediction: Luana Carolina wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Ariane Lipski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Carolina at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ariane Lipski
Red Corner
VS
Luana Carolina
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
1495
Elo
1500
26
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane Lipski
oldest →
W
DECvs Isabela De Pauda · Nov 19
L
KOvs Antonina Shevchenko · Nov 20
L
KOvs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 21
W
vs Mandy Bohm · Sep 21
L
KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Aug 22
latest
Luana Carolina
oldest →
L
vs Joanne Wood · Mar 23
W
vs Ivana Petrovic · Jul 23
W
KOvs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 24
W
vs Lucie Pudilova · Jul 24
L
vs Michelle Montague · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane LipskiMetricLuana Carolina
—
Strikes / min
4.65
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.46
—
Strike defense
51%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.30
—
Takedown defense
68%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1515Strikes3.4 vs 6.5Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 2.00Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Ariane LipskiLuana Carolina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ariane Lipski(8 fights)Luana Carolina(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.4|Blue +5.4
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -189.0|Blue +189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Ariane Lipski

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4

Luana Carolina

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights10