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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ariane da Silva won · S-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1492

Ariane da SilvavsMelissa GattoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Saturday, July 1, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ariane da Silva won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAriane da Silva: Pressure fightervsMelissa Gatto: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ariane da Silva wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Ariane da Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ariane da Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ariane da Silva

Red Corner

Melissa Gatto

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1487

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane da SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 23

SUBvs Casey O'Neill · Dec 23

vs Karine Silva · Apr 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Nov 24

vs Wang Cong · Jun 25

latest

Melissa Gatto

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · Aug 21

KOvs Sijara Eubanks · Dec 21

vs Tracy Cortez · May 22

KOvs Tamires Vidal · May 24

DECvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane da SilvaMetricMelissa Gatto

4.05

Strikes / min

3.47

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

50%

Strike defense

54%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.77

68%

Takedown defense

58%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ariane da SilvaMelissa Gatto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ariane da Silva(6 fights)Melissa Gatto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.6|Blue +5.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariane da SilvaTargetMelissa Gatto

By target zone

28% acc · 42%

Head

33% acc · 46%

75% acc · 41%

Body

68% acc · 40%

92% acc · 17%

Leg

63% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 80%

Distance

42% acc · 82%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

71% acc · 18%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ariane da Silva rounds

even

Melissa Gatto rounds

Round 1Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:12

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:35

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 149

Sig Strikes

85 / 186

44%

Sig Str %

45.7%

81 / 166

Total Strikes

100 / 201

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 7

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melissa Gatto	28 / 53	28 / 53	0 / 1
1	Ariane da Silva	16 / 49	18 / 52	0 / 0
2	Melissa Gatto	33 / 66	45 / 78	0 / 3
2	Ariane da Silva	26 / 46	39 / 60	1 / 1
3	Melissa Gatto	24 / 67	27 / 70	0 / 3
3	Ariane da Silva	24 / 54	24 / 54	0 / 0

Ariane da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Melissa Gatto

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6