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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ariane da Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1522

Ariane da SilvavsJJ AldrichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ariane da Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAriane da Silva: Pressure fightervsJJ Aldrich: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: JJ Aldrich wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Ariane da Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JJ Aldrich at -375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ariane da Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
JJ Aldrich has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors JJ Aldrich (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ariane da Silva

Red Corner

JJ Aldrich

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

-375

(79%)

1487

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane da SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Melissa Gatto · Jul 23

SUBvs Casey O'Neill · Dec 23

vs Karine Silva · Apr 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Nov 24

vs Wang Cong · Jun 25

latest

JJ AldrichW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Liang Na · Aug 23

vs Montana De La Rosa · Oct 23

vs Veronica Hardy · May 24

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 25

DECvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane da SilvaMetricJJ Aldrich

4.05

Strikes / min

3.92

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

50%

Strike defense

61%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.70

68%

Takedown defense

67%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ariane da SilvaJJ Aldrich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ariane da Silva(6 fights)JJ Aldrich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.9|Blue +34.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +48.6|Blue -48.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariane da SilvaTargetJJ Aldrich

By target zone

35% acc · 47%

Head

46% acc · 86%

75% acc · 42%

Body

100% acc · 8%

86% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 76%

Distance

47% acc · 92%

86% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ariane da Silva rounds

even

JJ Aldrich rounds

Round 1Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control0:19

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

101 / 204

Sig Strikes

49 / 99

49%

Sig Str %

50.3%

113 / 216

Total Strikes

56 / 106

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 12

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	JJ Aldrich	11 / 20	14 / 23	0 / 5
1	Ariane da Silva	35 / 67	40 / 72	0 / 0
2	JJ Aldrich	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 2
2	Ariane da Silva	35 / 73	35 / 73	0 / 0
3	JJ Aldrich	18 / 40	22 / 44	0 / 5
3	Ariane da Silva	31 / 64	38 / 71	2 / 2

Ariane da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

JJ Aldrich

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16