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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jasmine Jasudavicius won · SUB R3

Elo1487

Elo1542

Jasmine Jasudavicius editorial illustration

Ariane da SilvavsJasmine JasudaviciusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Saturday, November 2, 2024Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Jasmine Jasudavicius won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:28

Style matchupAriane da Silva: Pressure fightervsJasmine Jasudavicius: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jasmine Jasudavicius wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Jasmine Jasudavicius wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jasmine Jasudavicius at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ariane da Silva

Red Corner

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1487

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane da SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 23

vs Melissa Gatto · Jul 23

SUBvs Casey O'Neill · Dec 23

vs Karine Silva · Apr 24

vs Wang Cong · Jun 25

latest

Jasmine Jasudavicius

oldest →

vs Fatima Kline · Jul 24

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Feb 25

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · May 25

KOvs Manon Fiorot · Oct 25

DECvs Karine Silva · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane da SilvaMetricJasmine Jasudavicius

4.05

Strikes / min

3.47

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

2.63

68%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ariane da SilvaJasmine Jasudavicius

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ariane da Silva(6 fights)Jasmine Jasudavicius(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.5|Blue +55.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariane da SilvaTargetJasmine Jasudavicius

By target zone

40% acc · 62%

Head

38% acc · 81%

65% acc · 36%

Body

83% acc · 14%

25% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

47% acc · 98%

Distance

34% acc · 67%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

85% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ariane da Silva rounds

even

Jasmine Jasudavicius rounds

Round 1Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Jasmine Jasudavicius edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:42Control

Round 3Jasmine Jasudavicius edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 92

Sig Strikes

36 / 84

44%

Sig Str %

49.3%

43 / 93

Total Strikes

130 / 218

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jasmine Jasudavicius	13 / 46	20 / 60	1 / 1	0
1	Ariane da Silva	27 / 57	27 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Jasmine Jasudavicius	17 / 28	83 / 120	1 / 1	0
2	Ariane da Silva	9 / 20	10 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Jasmine Jasudavicius	6 / 10	27 / 38	1 / 3	1
3	Ariane da Silva	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 0	0

Ariane da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Jasmine Jasudavicius

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11