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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Loopy Godinez won · U-DEC R3
Elo1477
Ariane Carnelossi
Elo1507
Loopy Godinez

Ariane CarnelossivsLoopy GodinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Loopy Godinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Loopy Godinez wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Loopy Godinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Loopy Godinez at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Loopy Godinez has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Loopy Godinez has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ariane Carnelossi
Red Corner
VS
Loopy Godinez
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-195
(66%)
1477
Elo
1507
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'2"
Height
5'2"
154.94 cm
Reach
154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane CarnelossiL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21
W
SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21
W
vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24
L
SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25
L
KOvs Ketlen Souza · Jun 26
latest
Loopy Godinez
oldest →
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Mar 24
L
vs Mackenzie Dern · Aug 24
W
vs Julia Polastri · Mar 25
W
vs Jessica Andrade · Aug 25
L
SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane CarnelossiMetricLoopy Godinez
2.63
Strikes / min
4.43
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.94
44%
Strike defense
62%
1.08
TDs / 15 min
2.99
22%
Takedown defense
76%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.98Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1502Strikes2.9 vs 4.2Takedowns1.4 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 1.00Form0.8 vs 0.1
Ariane CarnelossiLoopy Godinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Ariane Carnelossi(7 fights)Loopy Godinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -30.4|Blue +30.4
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariane CarnelossiTargetLoopy Godinez

By target zone

7
39% acc · 78%
Head
36
73% acc · 78%
1
100% acc · 11%
Body
10
83% acc · 22%
1
100% acc · 11%
Leg
0

By position

4
31% acc · 44%
Distance
11
58% acc · 24%
3
60% acc · 33%
Clinch
8
67% acc · 17%
2
100% acc · 22%
Ground
27
90% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ariane Carnelossi rounds
0
even
3
Loopy Godinez rounds
Round 1Loopy Godinez edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
4:20Control
Round 2Loopy Godinez edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:24Control
Round 3Loopy Godinez edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 20
Sig Strikes
46 / 61
49%
Sig Str %
71.7%
23 / 35
Total Strikes
130 / 173
0 / 1
TDs
8 / 8
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
13:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Loopy Godinez6 / 1131 / 414 / 41
1Ariane Carnelossi2 / 83 / 90 / 10
2Loopy Godinez23 / 3049 / 611 / 11
2Ariane Carnelossi3 / 79 / 140 / 00
3Loopy Godinez17 / 2050 / 713 / 30
3Ariane Carnelossi4 / 511 / 120 / 00

Ariane Carnelossi

StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights7

Loopy Godinez

StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights14