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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Angela Hill won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1477

Elo1506

Ariane CarnelossivsAngela HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Angela Hill won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:56

Model Prediction: Ariane Carnelossi wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Angela Hill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ariane Carnelossi at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Angela Hill has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Angela Hill has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ariane Carnelossi

Red Corner

Angela Hill

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1477

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

154.94 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane CarnelossiL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21

vs Loopy Godinez · May 22

vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24

SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25

KOvs Ketlen Souza · Jun 26

latest

Angela Hill

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Aug 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 25

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 25

vs Fatima Kline · Nov 25

DECvs Xiong Jingnan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane CarnelossiMetricAngela Hill

2.63

Strikes / min

5.37

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

5.02

44%

Strike defense

60%

1.08

TDs / 15 min

0.75

22%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.98Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ariane CarnelossiAngela Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ariane Carnelossi(7 fights)Angela Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +46.0|Blue -46.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariane CarnelossiTargetAngela Hill

By target zone

26% acc · 50%

Head

44% acc · 65%

58% acc · 21%

Body

70% acc · 35%

91% acc · 29%

Leg

0% acc

By position

37% acc · 79%

Distance

41% acc · 62%

50% acc · 21%

Clinch

78% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ariane Carnelossi rounds

even

Angela Hill rounds

Round 1Angela Hill edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:29

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Angela Hill edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:09

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Angela Hill edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 186

Sig Strikes

92 / 184

37%

Sig Str %

50%

83 / 197

Total Strikes

93 / 185

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Angela Hill	37 / 68	37 / 68	0 / 0
1	Ariane Carnelossi	28 / 69	32 / 73	0 / 1
2	Angela Hill	39 / 85	39 / 85	0 / 0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	31 / 76	36 / 81	0 / 0
3	Angela Hill	16 / 31	17 / 32	0 / 0
3	Ariane Carnelossi	13 / 41	15 / 43	0 / 0

Ariane Carnelossi

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights7

Angela Hill

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights30