Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aoriqileng won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1441

AoriqilengvsJay PerrinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Aoriqileng won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAoriqileng: Pressure fightervsJay Perrin: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aoriqileng wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Aoriqileng wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aoriqileng at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jay Perrin (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Aoriqileng

Red Corner

Jay Perrin

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1491

Elo

1441

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aoriqileng

oldest →

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 23

vs Johnny Munoz · Oct 23

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Sep 24

KOvs Cody Gibson · Oct 25

KOvs Cody Haddon · May 26

latest

Jay PerrinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mario Bautista · Feb 22

SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

AoriqilengMetricJay Perrin

4.69

Strikes / min

3.71

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

48%

Strike defense

44%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

2.83

58%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

AoriqilengJay Perrin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aoriqileng(9 fights)Jay Perrin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

AoriqilengTargetJay Perrin

By target zone

48% acc · 71%

Head

47% acc · 72%

82% acc · 19%

Body

80% acc · 23%

88% acc · 10%

Leg

71% acc · 6%

By position

51% acc · 85%

Distance

49% acc · 83%

85% acc · 15%

Clinch

81% acc · 15%

Ground

67% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aoriqileng rounds

even

Jay Perrin rounds

Round 1Jay Perrin edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 3Jay Perrin edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 132

Sig Strikes

88 / 167

56%

Sig Str %

49.7%

102 / 163

Total Strikes

106 / 188

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

5:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jay Perrin	20 / 49	25 / 54	1 / 2
1	Aoriqileng	18 / 31	24 / 37	0 / 2
2	Jay Perrin	20 / 49	24 / 55	1 / 2
2	Aoriqileng	29 / 43	47 / 61	0 / 0
3	Jay Perrin	48 / 69	57 / 79	1 / 3
3	Aoriqileng	25 / 58	31 / 65	0 / 1

Aoriqileng

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Jay Perrin

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3