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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1358

Elo1492

Antonio SilvavsAndrei ArlovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:59

Style matchupAntonio Silva: Well-roundedvsAndrei Arlovski: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +380 American odds

+$380 profit

$480 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Antonio Silva has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Silva

Red Corner

Andrei Arlovski

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1358

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

208.28 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Feb 15

KOvs Soa Palelei · Aug 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Nov 15

KOvs Stefan Struve · May 16

KOvs Roy Nelson · Sep 16

latest

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio SilvaMetricAndrei Arlovski

2.89

Strikes / min

3.82

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

50%

Strike defense

57%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

0.37

66%

Takedown defense

76%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.20evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio SilvaAndrei Arlovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Silva(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.4|Blue +134.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +385.0|Blue -385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio SilvaTargetAndrei Arlovski

By target zone

29% acc · 33%

Head

30% acc · 62%

67% acc · 33%

Body

80% acc · 31%

67% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

45% acc · 83%

Distance

31% acc · 62%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

33% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Silva rounds

even

Andrei Arlovski rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 13

Sig Strikes

13 / 33

46%

Sig Str %

39%

6 / 13

Total Strikes

14 / 34

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrei Arlovski	13 / 33	14 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Antonio Silva	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0

Antonio Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights10

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27