Featherweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Carvalho won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Antonio CarvalhovsRodrigo DammUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Antonio Carvalho won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAntonio Carvalho: StrikervsRodrigo Damm: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Antonio Carvalho wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Antonio Carvalho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carvalho at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rodrigo Damm enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carvalho has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carvalho

Red Corner

Rodrigo Damm

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carvalho

oldest →

vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Jul 12

KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 13

latest

Rodrigo DammL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mizuto Hirota · Jun 13

vs Ivan Jorge · Feb 14

vs Rashid Magomedov · May 14

KOvs Al Iaquinta · Sep 14

vs Evan Dunham · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio CarvalhoMetricRodrigo Damm

3.03

Strikes / min

3.50

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.61

64%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.44

100%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio CarvalhoRodrigo Damm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Rodrigo Damm(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.1|Blue -136.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio CarvalhoTargetRodrigo Damm

By target zone

9% acc · 19%

Head

25% acc · 60%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 16%

75% acc · 81%

Leg

44% acc · 24%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carvalho rounds

even

Rodrigo Damm rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Antonio Carvalho edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Rodrigo Damm edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 150

Sig Strikes

50 / 158

32.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

48 / 150

Total Strikes

50 / 158

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo Damm	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0
1	Antonio Carvalho	16 / 47	16 / 47	0 / 0
2	Rodrigo Damm	16 / 51	16 / 51	0 / 0
2	Antonio Carvalho	19 / 45	19 / 45	0 / 0
3	Rodrigo Damm	18 / 68	18 / 68	0 / 0
3	Antonio Carvalho	13 / 58	13 / 58	0 / 0

Antonio Carvalho

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Rodrigo Damm

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7