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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1499

Antonio CarvalhovsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:06

Style matchupAntonio Carvalho: StrikervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carvalho has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Antonio Carvalho has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carvalho

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1490

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio CarvalhoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Jul 12

vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio CarvalhoMetricDarren Elkins

3.03

Strikes / min

3.40

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

64%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.87

100%

Takedown defense

56%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio CarvalhoDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.3|Blue +9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio CarvalhoTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

28% acc · 78%

Head

17% acc · 57%

Body

80% acc · 29%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

26% acc · 67%

Distance

15% acc · 43%

75% acc · 33%

Clinch

62% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carvalho rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 27

Sig Strikes

14 / 54

33%

Sig Str %

25%

13 / 31

Total Strikes

19 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	14 / 54	19 / 59	0 / 2	0
1	Antonio Carvalho	9 / 27	13 / 31	0 / 0	0

Antonio Carvalho

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30