Featherweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Carvalho won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1489

Antonio CarvalhovsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · Saturday, July 21, 2012Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Antonio Carvalho won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:11

Style matchupAntonio Carvalho: StrikervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Antonio Carvalho wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Antonio Carvalho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carvalho at +235 American odds

+$235 profit

$335 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carvalho has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Antonio Carvalho has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carvalho

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carvalho

oldest →

vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12

vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12

KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 13

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio CarvalhoMetricDaniel Pineda

3.03

Strikes / min

2.85

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

64%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.42

100%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio CarvalhoDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio CarvalhoTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

40% acc · 80%

Head

35% acc · 86%

50% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

0% acc

By position

42% acc · 80%

Distance

28% acc · 71%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

67% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carvalho rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Antonio Carvalho edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 23

Sig Strikes

7 / 20

43%

Sig Str %

35%

10 / 23

Total Strikes

7 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	7 / 20	7 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Antonio Carvalho	10 / 23	10 / 23	0 / 0	0

Antonio Carvalho

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13