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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Patrick Cummins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1395

Elo1373

Antonio Carlos JuniorvsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Patrick Cummins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAntonio Carlos Junior: WrestlervsPatrick Cummins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carlos Junior has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carlos Junior

Red Corner

Patrick Cummins

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1395

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Patrick CumminsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17

vs Gian Villante · Jul 17

vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18

KOvs Ed Herman · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricPatrick Cummins

1.95

Strikes / min

4.26

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

52%

Strike defense

55%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

4.49

53%

Takedown defense

28%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio Carlos JuniorPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.9|Blue -21.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio Carlos JuniorTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

32% acc · 67%

Head

64% acc · 94%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

33% acc · 67%

Distance

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

67% acc · 17%

Ground

73% acc · 94%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

even

Patrick Cummins rounds

Round 1Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:44Control

Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:45Control

Round 3Patrick Cummins edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:37

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 29

Sig Strikes

62 / 94

35.3%

Sig Str %

66%

14 / 32

Total Strikes

122 / 162

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 8

50%

TD %

49.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

11:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Patrick Cummins	19 / 26	42 / 49	1 / 2	0
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	3 / 8	4 / 9	0 / 0	1
2	Patrick Cummins	19 / 33	34 / 53	2 / 3	0
2	Antonio Carlos Junior	8 / 15	8 / 15	0 / 1	0
3	Patrick Cummins	24 / 35	46 / 60	1 / 3	0
3	Antonio Carlos Junior	1 / 6	2 / 8	1 / 1	0

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights13