Middleweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Carlos Junior won · U-DEC R3

Elo1395

Elo1467

Antonio Carlos JuniorvsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Friday, December 30, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Antonio Carlos Junior won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAntonio Carlos Junior: WrestlervsMarvin Vettori: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carlos Junior at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marvin Vettori has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).
Antonio Carlos Junior has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carlos Junior

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1395

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricMarvin Vettori

1.95

Strikes / min

4.74

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

52%

Strike defense

56%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

1.41

53%

Takedown defense

68%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio Carlos JuniorMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.6|Blue +72.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio Carlos JuniorTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

22% acc · 43%

Head

34% acc · 72%

50% acc · 14%

Body

80% acc · 14%

92% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

31% acc · 64%

Distance

24% acc · 38%

67% acc · 21%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

50% acc · 14%

Ground

76% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:08

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:12

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 3Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 75

Sig Strikes

29 / 70

36.7%

Sig Str %

37%

44 / 94

Total Strikes

99 / 144

4 / 13

TDs

1 / 1

34.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:33

Ctrl Time

2:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marvin Vettori	5 / 21	38 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	13 / 33	14 / 34	1 / 5	0
2	Marvin Vettori	20 / 38	34 / 53	1 / 1	1
2	Antonio Carlos Junior	7 / 20	14 / 29	1 / 2	0
3	Marvin Vettori	4 / 11	27 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Antonio Carlos Junior	8 / 22	16 / 31	2 / 6	0

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17