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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Antonio Carlos Junior won · Submission R3
Elo1395
Elo1358

Antonio Carlos JuniorvsLeonardo Augusto LelecoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Antonio Carlos Junior won

Submission · Round 3 · 4:46

Model Prediction: Leonardo Augusto Leleco wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Augusto Leleco at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Antonio Carlos Junior threatens submissions; Leonardo Augusto Leleco has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Antonio Carlos Junior has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carlos Junior
Red Corner
VS
Leonardo Augusto Leleco
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
1395
Elo
1358
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17
W
SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18
L
vs Ian Heinisch · May 19
L
vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19
L
vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21
latest
Leonardo Augusto Leleco
oldest →
L
DECvs Anthony Smith · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricLeonardo Augusto Leleco
1.95
Strikes / min
—
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
—
52%
Strike defense
—
3.42
TDs / 15 min
—
53%
Takedown defense
—
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1498 vs 1481Strikes21.0 vs 64.0Takedowns2.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -1.0
Antonio Carlos JuniorLeonardo Augusto Leleco

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Leonardo Augusto Leleco(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +36.8|Blue -36.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red -27.0|Blue +27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11

Leonardo Augusto Leleco

No profile data.