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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Carlos Junior won · SUB R1

Elo1395

Elo1391

Antonio Carlos JuniorvsJack MarshmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Antonio Carlos Junior won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:30

Model Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carlos Junior at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carlos Junior threatens submissions; Jack Marshman has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Antonio Carlos Junior has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Antonio Carlos Junior has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carlos Junior

Red Corner

Jack Marshman

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1395

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 16

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Jack MarshmanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Janes · Jul 17

vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18

vs John Phillips · Mar 19

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19

vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricJack Marshman

1.95

Strikes / min

2.74

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

4.19

52%

Strike defense

56%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

0.00

53%

Takedown defense

20%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio Carlos JuniorJack Marshman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Jack Marshman(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.9|Blue -3.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +198.0|Blue -198.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio Carlos JuniorTargetJack Marshman

By target zone

39% acc · 82%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

0% acc

By position

31% acc · 45%

Distance

7% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 55%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

even

Jack Marshman rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:09

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 27

Sig Strikes

1 / 15

40%

Sig Str %

35 / 51

Total Strikes

4 / 18

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jack Marshman	1 / 15	4 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	11 / 27	35 / 51	1 / 1	1

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Jack Marshman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8