Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ian Heinisch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1395

Elo1405

Antonio Carlos JuniorvsIan HeinischUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ian Heinisch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAntonio Carlos Junior: WrestlervsIan Heinisch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ian Heinisch wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Ian Heinisch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Heinisch at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carlos Junior has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carlos Junior

Red Corner

Ian Heinisch

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1395

Elo

1405

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

200.66 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carlos JuniorL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 16

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Ian HeinischL2 streak

oldest →

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Dec 19

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jun 20

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Feb 21

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricIan Heinisch

1.95

Strikes / min

3.25

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

52%

Strike defense

59%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

1.02

53%

Takedown defense

59%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio Carlos JuniorIan Heinisch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Ian Heinisch(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.9|Blue +9.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio Carlos JuniorTargetIan Heinisch

By target zone

37% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 67%

50% acc · 7%

Body

40% acc · 5%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

79% acc · 28%

By position

39% acc · 73%

Distance

42% acc · 33%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

71% acc · 13%

67% acc · 13%

Ground

72% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

even

Ian Heinisch rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control4:11

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Ian Heinisch edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:27

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 3Ian Heinisch edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:45

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 33

Sig Strikes

39 / 67

45%

Sig Str %

48.3%

25 / 43

Total Strikes

79 / 115

4 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

27.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:23

Ctrl Time

4:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian Heinisch	1 / 4	8 / 11	0 / 0
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	8 / 12	13 / 17	3 / 6
2	Ian Heinisch	18 / 30	39 / 54	0 / 0
2	Antonio Carlos Junior	3 / 12	5 / 14	1 / 3
3	Ian Heinisch	20 / 33	32 / 50	1 / 1
3	Antonio Carlos Junior	4 / 9	7 / 12	0 / 2

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Ian Heinisch

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7