Middleweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Carlos Junior won · SUB R3

Elo1395

Elo1355

Antonio Carlos JuniorvsEddie GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Antonio Carlos Junior won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:37

Model Prediction: Antonio Carlos Junior wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonio Carlos Junior at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Antonio Carlos Junior threatens submissions; Eddie Gordon has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Carlos Junior

Red Corner

Eddie Gordon

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1395

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17

SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18

vs Ian Heinisch · May 19

vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19

vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21

latest

Eddie GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jul 14

KOvs Josh Samman · Dec 14

vs Chris Dempsey · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Carlos JuniorMetricEddie Gordon

1.95

Strikes / min

2.03

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

52%

Strike defense

60%

3.42

TDs / 15 min

1.93

53%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonio Carlos JuniorEddie Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)Eddie Gordon(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.9|Blue -39.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio Carlos JuniorTargetEddie Gordon

By target zone

44% acc · 68%

Head

24% acc · 83%

80% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

39% acc · 60%

Distance

25% acc · 92%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

91% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Carlos Junior rounds

even

Eddie Gordon rounds

Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:59

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:17

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Antonio Carlos Junior edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 78

Sig Strikes

12 / 45

49%

Sig Str %

26.7%

76 / 119

Total Strikes

39 / 75

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

63.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:20

Ctrl Time

2:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eddie Gordon	1 / 4	13 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Antonio Carlos Junior	14 / 21	37 / 48	2 / 5	0
2	Eddie Gordon	8 / 31	14 / 38	0 / 1	0
2	Antonio Carlos Junior	22 / 45	27 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Eddie Gordon	3 / 10	12 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Antonio Carlos Junior	4 / 12	12 / 20	1 / 2	1

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Eddie Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4