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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Braga Neto won · SUB R1

Elo1363

Elo1485

Antonio Braga NetovsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Antonio Braga Neto won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:52

Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Antonio Braga Neto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Smith at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anthony Smith has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Antonio Braga Neto

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1363

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonio Braga NetoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Clint Hester · Jun 14

KOvs Trevin Giles · Dec 17

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonio Braga NetoMetricAnthony Smith

1.36

Strikes / min

3.19

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

45%

Strike defense

44%

3.07

TDs / 15 min

0.44

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.56evenly matched on net striking-1.85

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonio Braga Neto(3 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.1|Blue +122.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonio Braga NetoTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

38% acc · 83%

Head

14% acc · 40%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 40%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

31% acc · 67%

Distance

18% acc · 60%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonio Braga Neto rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Antonio Braga Neto edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 15

Sig Strikes

5 / 19

40%

Sig Str %

26%

6 / 15

Total Strikes

5 / 19

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Smith	5 / 19	5 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Antonio Braga Neto	6 / 15	6 / 15	1 / 3	1

Antonio Braga Neto

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25