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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Antonina Shevchenko won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1491

Antonina ShevchenkovsLucie PudilovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · Saturday, August 3, 2019Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Antonina Shevchenko won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:20

Model Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Antonina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonina Shevchenko at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucie Pudilova enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Antonina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Lucie Pudilova

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1496

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonina Shevchenko

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20

SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Oct 21

vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22

latest

Lucie PudilovaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Liz Carmouche · Feb 19

KOvs Wu Yanan · Aug 22

vs Joselyne Edwards · Apr 23

vs Ailin Perez · Nov 23

vs Luana Carolina · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonina ShevchenkoMetricLucie Pudilova

3.86

Strikes / min

3.60

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

52%

Strike defense

50%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.70

53%

Takedown defense

67%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonina ShevchenkoLucie Pudilova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)Lucie Pudilova(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.8|Blue -4.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonina ShevchenkoTargetLucie Pudilova

By target zone

50% acc · 19%

Head

25% acc · 50%

69% acc · 56%

Body

75% acc · 50%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 6%

Distance

0% acc

75% acc · 94%

Clinch

71% acc · 83%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonina Shevchenko rounds

even

Lucie Pudilova rounds

Round 1Antonina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:37

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:17

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 23

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

38%

Sig Str %

27%

36 / 44

Total Strikes

12 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:54

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucie Pudilova	6 / 11	11 / 18	1 / 3	0
1	Antonina Shevchenko	16 / 21	34 / 39	0 / 0	2
2	Lucie Pudilova	0 / 5	1 / 6	0 / 2	0
2	Antonina Shevchenko	0 / 2	2 / 5	0 / 0	1

Antonina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Lucie Pudilova

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights10