← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Antonina Shevchenko won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1495

Antonina ShevchenkovsCortney CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Saturday, July 9, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Antonina Shevchenko won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Antonina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Antonina Shevchenko at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Antonina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Cortney Casey

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1496

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonina ShevchenkoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lucie Pudilova · Aug 19

vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20

SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Oct 21

latest

Cortney Casey

oldest →

vs Cynthia Calvillo · Feb 19

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonina ShevchenkoMetricCortney Casey

3.86

Strikes / min

4.29

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.00

52%

Strike defense

55%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.39

53%

Takedown defense

39%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonina ShevchenkoCortney Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)Cortney Casey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonina ShevchenkoTargetCortney Casey

By target zone

36% acc · 47%

Head

33% acc · 52%

58% acc · 27%

Body

29% acc · 6%

78% acc · 25%

Leg

52% acc · 42%

By position

47% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 85%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonina Shevchenko rounds

even

Cortney Casey rounds

Round 1Antonina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:34

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Antonina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:16

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 117

Sig Strikes

33 / 86

49%

Sig Str %

41.7%

81 / 158

Total Strikes

80 / 146

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

3:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cortney Casey	12 / 20	35 / 47	0 / 2
1	Antonina Shevchenko	16 / 35	30 / 55	0 / 0
2	Cortney Casey	9 / 37	9 / 39	0 / 1
2	Antonina Shevchenko	24 / 57	24 / 57	0 / 0
3	Cortney Casey	12 / 29	36 / 60	2 / 2
3	Antonina Shevchenko	15 / 25	27 / 46	0 / 1

Antonina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15