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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Casey O'Neill won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1520

Antonina ShevchenkovsCasey O'NeillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Casey O'Neill won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:47

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(89.5%)

Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey O'Neill has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Antonina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Casey O'Neill

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1496

Elo

1520

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Antonina Shevchenko

oldest →

SUBvs Lucie Pudilova · Aug 19

vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20

SUBvs Andrea Lee · May 21

vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22

latest

Casey O'NeillW2 streak

oldest →

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Antonina ShevchenkoMetricCasey O'Neill

3.86

Strikes / min

7.89

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

52%

Strike defense

57%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.40

53%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+2.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Antonina ShevchenkoCasey O'Neill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.8|Blue +24.8

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Antonina ShevchenkoTargetCasey O'Neill

By target zone

58% acc · 80%

Head

46% acc · 88%

100% acc · 20%

Body

57% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

53% acc · 60%

Distance

24% acc · 25%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

80% acc · 20%

Ground

71% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Antonina Shevchenko rounds

even

Casey O'Neill rounds

Round 1Antonina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:49

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:23

43Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:20Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 63

Sig Strikes

52 / 110

60%

Sig Str %

41%

58 / 85

Total Strikes

128 / 209

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 8

TD %

36.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

5:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Casey O'Neill	9 / 33	26 / 52	2 / 5
1	Antonina Shevchenko	29 / 41	38 / 51	0 / 1
2	Casey O'Neill	43 / 77	102 / 157	1 / 3
2	Antonina Shevchenko	11 / 22	20 / 34	0 / 0

Antonina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8