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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Justin Salas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1356

Anton KuivanenvsJustin SalasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Justin Salas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Salas wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Justin Salas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Salas at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anton Kuivanen has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Salas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anton Kuivanen

Red Corner

Justin Salas

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anton Kuivanen

oldest →

vs Mitch Clarke · Jul 12

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Feb 13

latest

Justin SalasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Aaron Riley · Jul 13

SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Nov 13

KOvs Ben Wall · May 14

KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14

KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anton KuivanenMetricJustin Salas

2.27

Strikes / min

3.42

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

67%

Strike defense

68%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

2.43

71%

Takedown defense

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.64evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anton Kuivanen(3 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.7|Blue -133.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anton KuivanenTargetJustin Salas

By target zone

19% acc · 42%

Head

31% acc · 48%

73% acc · 50%

Body

81% acc · 26%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

76% acc · 26%

By position

28% acc · 76%

Distance

37% acc · 64%

75% acc · 24%

Clinch

73% acc · 16%

0% acc

Ground

77% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anton Kuivanen rounds

even

Justin Salas rounds

Round 1Justin Salas edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Justin Salas edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Justin Salas edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 115

Sig Strikes

50 / 111

33.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

39 / 117

Total Strikes

66 / 129

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 15

—

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

4:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Salas	20 / 48	22 / 50	2 / 5
1	Anton Kuivanen	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 0
2	Justin Salas	17 / 38	19 / 40	0 / 6
2	Anton Kuivanen	14 / 46	14 / 46	0 / 0
3	Justin Salas	13 / 25	25 / 39	2 / 4
3	Anton Kuivanen	9 / 22	10 / 24	0 / 0

Anton Kuivanen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Justin Salas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7