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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Zhang Mingyang won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1485

Elo1489

Anthony SmithvsZhang MingyangUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Saturday, April 26, 2025Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Zhang Mingyang won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:03

Model Prediction: Zhang Mingyang wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Zhang Mingyang wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Mingyang at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhang Mingyang is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Zhang Mingyang has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Zhang Mingyang

Blue Corner

+295

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-370

(79%)

1485

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · Aug 23

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

latest

Zhang MingyangL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Feb 24

KOvs Ozzy Diaz · Nov 24

KOvs Johnny Walker · Aug 25

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricZhang Mingyang

3.19

Strikes / min

7.71

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

5.33

44%

Strike defense

43%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 4.23 — meaningful gap+2.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithZhang Mingyang

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Zhang Mingyang(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetZhang Mingyang

By target zone

44% acc · 80%

Head

72% acc · 67%

67% acc · 20%

Body

75% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

48% acc · 100%

Distance

76% acc · 56%

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

Ground

81% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Zhang Mingyang rounds

Round 1Zhang Mingyang edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:16

63Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 21

Sig Strikes

63 / 81

47%

Sig Str %

77%

11 / 22

Total Strikes

76 / 97

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zhang Mingyang	63 / 81	76 / 97	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Smith	10 / 21	11 / 22	0 / 1	0

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Zhang Mingyang

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5