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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1543

Anthony SmithvsVitor PetrinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:00

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -410 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Vitor Petrino enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Vitor Petrino has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Vitor Petrino

Blue Corner

+320

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-410

(80%)

1485

Elo

1543

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · Aug 23

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Vitor PetrinoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Tyson Pedro · Mar 24

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Dec 24

SUBvs Austen Lane · Jul 25

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Oct 25

vs Steven Asplund · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricVitor Petrino

3.19

Strikes / min

3.24

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.71

44%

Strike defense

51%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

2.60

50%

Takedown defense

79%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 2.38 — meaningful gap+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithVitor Petrino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Vitor Petrino(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.0|Blue +58.0

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetVitor Petrino

By target zone

47% acc · 64%

Head

29% acc · 40%

Body

67% acc · 40%

80% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Vitor Petrino rounds

Round 1Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 20

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

55%

Sig Str %

45%

11 / 20

Total Strikes

10 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vitor Petrino	10 / 22	10 / 22	1 / 2	0
1	Anthony Smith	11 / 20	11 / 20	0 / 0	1

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9