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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1519

Anthony SmithvsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:47

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Spann at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1485

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricRyan Spann

3.19

Strikes / min

3.11

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

44%

Strike defense

43%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.21

50%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.7|Blue +33.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

52% acc · 65%

Head

29% acc · 63%

75% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 38%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 65%

Distance

33% acc · 75%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

75% acc · 35%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:38

Knockdowns2

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 28

Sig Strikes

8 / 20

60%

Sig Str %

40%

18 / 29

Total Strikes

8 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:38

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Spann	8 / 20	8 / 20	0 / 1	0
1	Anthony Smith	17 / 28	18 / 29	0 / 0	1

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17